January 13, 2026
Forrester Predicts AI Will Cut 10.4 Million US Jobs by 2030
Artificial intelligence will eliminate some jobs over the next five years, but it will not trigger mass unemployment, according to a new forecast from Forrester.
In its latest report, The Forrester AI Job Impact Forecast, US, 2025–2030, the analyst firm estimates that AI and automation will account for 6.1% of total US job losses by 2030, which equals roughly 10.4 million roles. While the number is substantial, Forrester stresses that AI is far more likely to transform work than replace human employees at scale.
The firm argues that for widespread job replacement to occur, labour productivity would need to increase far more quickly than current trends suggest. Instead, the next phase of AI adoption will focus on task automation, decision support, and productivity gains within existing roles.
AI Will Influence 20% of Jobs
Forrester predicts that around 20% of US jobs will be strongly influenced by AI over the next five years. These roles will not disappear, but the way work is done inside them will change.
AI systems summarise information, generate content, handle routine interactions, and support decision-making, which makes them more visible in day-to-day workflows, even when headcount remains unchanged. According to Forrester, AI’s influence on jobs is now more than three times greater than its role in outright job loss.
Growing investment in generative and agent-based AI is already changing how employees work across software development, customer service, and administrative roles, even as the technology continues to mature.
Many “AI Layoffs” Are Not About AI
The report warns that companies are increasingly blaming AI for layoffs that are primarily driven by financial pressure.
Forrester says many organisations announcing AI-related job cuts do not yet have mature, tested AI applications capable of replacing those roles. In conversations with clients, analysts frequently hear leaders claim they plan to replace staff with AI, only to admit that no such systems are ready or even in development.
This practice, which Forrester describes as “AI washing,” creates confusion for employees and unrealistic expectations for executives. It also contributes to growing anxiety about AI in the workplace, even when the technology is not the real driver of job losses.
Over-Automation Is Already Backfiring
The report also cautions against rushing into workforce reductions based on AI hype. Over-automating roles too early can lead to operational gaps, poorer service quality, and damage to employee experience.
Forrester’s future-of-work predictions for 2026 suggest that more than half of layoffs publicly linked to AI will eventually be reversed. In many cases, organisations underestimate the complexity of human work and overestimate the readiness of AI systems to take over end-to-end responsibilities.
This pattern is already visible in industries where automation was expected to replace entire professions, but instead led to new roles and increased demand for skilled workers.
Why Investment in People Still Matters
According to Forrester, organisations will only realise value from AI if they invest in their workforce alongside the technology. This includes training employees to work with AI systems, setting clear governance rules, and addressing ethical use.
“We may not be heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, but how organisations handle AI today will define more than just their future success,” said J. P. Gownder, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester.
Over the next five years, AI will take on more tasks and workflows, but jobs themselves will remain largely human. The companies that recognise this distinction are likely to see better productivity, stronger employee experience, and more sustainable outcomes.
